The vibe shift is here, let’s get weird

Watches have felt exhausting the last few years. Many people point to the $17m sale of Paul Newman’s Paul Newman Daytona in 2017 as a turning point, when people realized hey, there’s (a lot of) money in these things.

Nowadays, watch stories seem to move at the rate of a TMZ news ticker, with press releases flying around at the speed of 5G. It’s impossible to keep up with it all. Think about 2021 in watches: We got mad at so many (stupid) things! Mis-aligned hands, a watch with a light-blue dial, Rolex, Rolex, and Rolex.

And watches are far from alone. Last week, there was this article over on The Cut1 making the rounds: “A vibe shift is coming,” it proclaimed.

A vibe shift is a too-cool, anxiety-riddled millennial way of saying that «things change» (obviously!). From humans inventing fire to the most recent hypebeast era, humans have been shifting the vibes. If you open your Farmer’s Almanac, you’ll see it has portended 2022 as a year of exceptionally shifty vibes. The pandemic, the rise of 90s/00s nostalgia, and TikTok seem to be converging into an imminent vibe shift.

Out with the hypebeasting, sneaker flipping, and Drizzy Drake, and in with indie sleaze, the Tumblr aesthetic, and polaroids.

Okay sure, but what’s this have to do with watches?

Over the last few years, it feels like watches have become a part of the culture in a way they never have before. Watch trends are firmly drafting off of hypebeast culture: refer to “hype watches” and everyone nods along knowing the 3-4 watches you’re referring to.[2] Sold out stores, sky-high secondary market prices, The Timepiece Gentleman — you know the story, and it’s not one that’s limited to watches.

And honestly, we’re kind of tired of it all, right? The Cut says the next decade of culture might mark a return to early 2000s “indie sleaze.” And people will go off in a lot of different directions because it won't feel like there’s a coherent or singular taste. More irony. Micro-cultures will pop up, with people following their favorite podcasts or Substacks (👋) more than social media (Instagram = soo 2010s).

I don’t know what the next vibe in watches might be, but I hope it’s more weird, quirky, and offbeat (and less driven by the algorithm) than the trends of the last few years. There are so many interesting niches of watch collecting, I’m guessing some of those who are new to watches continue to discover them. Come for the hype, stay for the detente escapements, or something like that.

For much of the early 2010s, watches felt a little weird, vibing off the fundamental nerdiness of Tumblr (e.g., early Hodinkee Tumblr vibes) and forums.

Well kids, now we’re living in a brave, new post-Nautilus (or at least, post-5711) world. So let’s get weird.