Swiss watch exports grew by 1.5% in October 2019 as compared to a year prior, totalling 2.03 billion Swiss francs (CHF). But, growth was hindered by the Hong Kong market, which saw exports decline by 29.7%, while the rest of the world was up 6.5%. Like outside the watch industry, much of the headlines within the watch industry have been dominated by Hong Kong throughout the year.

I’m always wary to focus too much on the Hong Kong angle of reporting on Swiss watch exports because declining watch exports is likely the least consequential effect of what’s happening in the Hong Kong. While Hong Kong remains the largest export market through October 2019, exports are down 8.8% on the year.

Meanwhile, the rest of the top six markets are up for the year, with the second-largest market, the United States, up 8.8% (up 9.5% in October). China continues to see double-digit growth: it’s up 15.6% on the year and was up 17.6% in October.

Bimetal (gold-steel) watches contributed most to the positive export numbers, while precious metal and steel watches had a negative impact. Like when we reported on September exports, stainless steel watches (of the newly exported kind, at least), have not contributed to export growth throughout the sustained positive run the industry has seen. It’s an interesting footnote, considering the hottest watches in the world are steel sports watches.

So how will Swiss watch exports finish off 2019? Your guess is as good as any. The industry has seen two straight years of growth, with the 6.3% overall growth in 2018 the best in nearly a decade. However, the narrative coming into 2019 was how long such growth could be sustained. As we wrote at the beginning of 2019: “growth overall slowed in the second half of 2018, reflecting more secular worries that spread throughout the global economy.” Hong Kong wasn’t necessarily one of those worries at the time: we were concerned about rising tensions with the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, and the dozens of other existential crises threatening our way of life.

As the October report notes, “growth was steady in numerous markets,” with Hong Kong as the obvious exception. Perhaps the continued bull market in other parts of the world will carry watch exports through the holiday season to a positive 2019. More than ever, it seems warning signs are strewn across the economy that this growth can’t last forever. But then again, we wrote that same sentence nearly a year ago, so enjoy the party until the lights go off.